Some thoughts about the future of DSLR and cameras market

Two critical shifts

The two main shifts of this industry look to me so clear I have no doubt the DSLR market will evolve significantly soon, and actually may have already started to: smartphones & mobile device are making many point & shoot cameras obsolete, if not many entry level DSLR. Not because they can challenge them in terms of image quality or performances & controls, but because they are proposing something unique: having always with oneself a camera, and sharing the pictures so easily, two things the other cameras can’t do.

Simultaneously, the mirrorless products are invading the markets and are a fast growing market. Not only they are smaller and as good as DSLR, but they are so innovative that many will continue adopting them. They are not only refreshing the market, they actually fit better with many photographers specification. DSLR was not for many want they really wanted, but only a way to take better pictures, or hoping taking better pictures. Both the reality and the dream now belong to mirrorless. DSLR just mean “being a Pro” or “living his passion whatever the price and the weigh”.

Why DSLR (and Point and Shoot) will continue to exist

However, writing articles about “why smartphones have killed the other cameras” or “DSLR is dead” look irrelevant but to attract readers to the journalist’s stuff.  High end Point and Shoot are very promising, but need to adapt their publishing services and DSLR are certainly not dead. They indeed propose something unique too, unchallenged so far by both smartphones and mirrorless: an optical view finder. As it exists so far only one full frame mirrorless (awfully expensive and quite specialized, the Leica M9), the full frame DSLR also propose bigger sensor, a must for shallow depth of field. DSLR have other advantages but I am not sure they will last (performances are now similar most of the time, if not overcome for some features by mirrorless, and low light advantages of big sensors are becoming less important as the other sensors are becoming so good).

Shallow depth of field and optical sensor can make your photo experience unique. So as long as the other cameras won’t challenge them for these two things, DSLR will resist for the long term. For the short term, Pro and wealthy amateurs will continue buying DSLR for many other reasons.

Long term future

However, the two main advantages of DSLR may not last forever. Nothing prevent manufacturers to release full frame mirrorless. And it would be dangerous to believe EVF (Electronic view finder) won’t be able to challenge if not becoming better than OVF (optical viewfinder) eventually. Or rangerfinder-like camera (dominated so far by Fuji) combining altogether OVF and EVF features are just proposing the best of two worlds. It looks however unlikely to convince many demanding photographers as the rangerfinder ergonomics certainly not fit everyone requirements.

What does it means for us

Unless you are investing for the long term in photography – either as a Pro or a serious amateur, I don’t really see the point for newbies to invest in DSLR. For those who must for their job or want for their passion, DX DSLR look uninteresting but for a pricing motivation, which unfortunately, overcomes everything else as usual. Therefore, concept like the rumoured new Nikon D600 looks great, as it will allow to make a kind of bridge between the “entry-level” DSLR world, and the real one (Full frame bodies), by working easily with both systems. That’s why I believe DSLR DX is dead but for entry-level, or rather should die as I find it not very attractive nowadays. OMHO, it would make more sense “learning” photography with mirrorless or high end Point and Shoot and invest in full frame bodies later, but whenever possible. By the way, the price of some excellent full frame cameras is rather going down, so this is not an option now impossible to consider for many people.

The final words

My bet:

Smartphones will become better and better cameras, introducing zooming, low light enable sensors, and better autofocus to replace definitively most of the point and shoot. This market will not disappear, but will get specialized (megazoom, waterproof, fully customizable& RAW capabilities, …).

Mirrorless will continue to destroy the entry level DSLR market, too bad for Nikon and Canon who have preferred milking the cow rather than surfing the wave, and some mirrorless will become excellent second body for those who will continue to love the full frame DSLR, or other medium format cameras.

And you, what do you think?

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Sorry, but instagram is no holy grail for photosharing

There is a common belief: smartphones will replace cameras and new photosharing websites are making the others obsolete. Since a few month, thanks to a skyrocketting growth, Instagram is the new kid on the block. I cannot disagree about some new trends and I will not say that photosharing is somewhere broken and must be fixed. But I don’t think things are so black and white. Some basic tests show that they can replace basic point & shoot ones, but certainly not more advanced bodies and lenses. Simultaneously, photosharing appears to be broken, and newbies can be very successfull. It does not mean the war is over. Instagram may be hype right now, and might be replaced by others players. I will more believe in the two following facts:

1. Cameras will be far better connected or, for some artists, you just don’t care

Some manufacturers are already or are going to improve soon dramatically the way you can process and publish your images, which is so far very old fashioned compare with smartphones. So in the (near) future, taking pictures with “real” cameras (DSLR, mirrorless, high end compacts) will mean publishing them the same way than smartphones do. Further more, some pictures need to be post processes, or some photographers want to post process them for their art, so for these people, the way cameras are working is just perfect and require no changes.

2. No holy grail so far for photosharing

There are actually more and more photosharing websites, and whereas some may or will disappear, many will stay alive and will specialize. You don’t need just one, you need many photosharing websites, depending on what you are looking for. And sorry, photography is not only for the masses. Many niches will develop, and that’s very good for art, and for the photography as a living art.

Conclusion

I am always a little bit annoyed by just hype and fashion. Life is rarely so black and white and there are no real “losers” or “winners”, even if some projects are really growing and others in dire straits. Most of the time, for such new trends and emerging technologies, it is more how you will get unique that matters, it is certainly not about raising money from Venture capitalists or being back-up by some famous people, even if it helps to get fame from bloggers or journalists.

As written by Oscar Wilde, “Be yourself; everyone else is already taken”.